3rd March 2022
There’s been a few precursor signs for full depth avalanche activity in our area in the last couple of days. No surprise, really, given the prevailing weather and basic snowpack conditions. Notoriously difficult, if not impossible, to forecast, but blend together the following and you have a fairly good recipe for full depth (or ‘glide’) avalanche activity:-
1. Heavy snowfall and/or drifting, giving a relatively thick snowpack. ✔
2. Transition to milder (or wetter) weather, which is then sustained. ✔
3. Steeply inclined, smooth bed surface – grass or rocky slabs. ✔
4. Copious lubricant (water) at the base of the snowpack. (See #2. above) ✔
All 4 apply to the Creag Meagaidh area today and for the past few days.
There’s a good, simple piece about full depth (‘glide’) avalanches here: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-forskningno-geologi/the-mysteries-of-glide-avalanches/1426933
Only medium confidence in the forecasted snow amounts for our area. The slow-moving frontal system may clip the Creag Meagaidh area and produce more snow than forecast. If so, you’ll need to recalibrate the avalanche forecast accordingly.
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